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Di pensioni, expat e conti che non tornano (prima parte)

Si deve ammettere che Padoan ha una predisposizione innata per le gaffe [1]:

Le ultimissime novità sulle pensioni precoci e anticipate vertono in parte sulla graduatoria Inps che continua a riservare amare sorprese ai lavoratori che hanno richiesto la pensione anticipata con quota 41 e ape sociale ed in parte dalle ultime dichiarazioni, che suonano un po’ come una gaffe, da parte del ministro dell’economia Padoan. […] ora a fare infuriare ancor più i lavoratori ci ha pensato il Ministro dell’economia Padoan.

Che commentando in modo allarmato i dati del bilancio Inps ha affermato che i pensionati italiani “muoiono troppo tardi e ciò incide negativamente sui conti dell’Inps”. Peccato, dicono in molti basiti sul web, che quei pensionati abbiano versato per 40/41/42 anni i loro contributi e la pensione se la siano ampiamente guadagnata.

In realtà il sistema pensionistico è bifronte: se da una parte abbiamo gli anziani che ricevono il denaro, dall’altra abbiamo i lavoratori che cacciano il grano. Ed è qui che abbiamo il problema…

 

—- La demografia italiana —-

In Europa, mediamente, si vive a lungo e unendo la cosa a un basso tasso di fertilità cosa abbiamo? Un’età media elevata: «With life expectancy at birth rising for successive generations and with historically low fertility rates, it is not surprising to find that the median age of the EU‑28’s population continued to increase in recent years. It rose by 2.8 years during the most recent decade for which data are available, reaching 42.6 years on 1 January 2016. Figure 2.3 shows that the median age ranged between 36.7 years in Ireland and 45.7 years in Germany, suggesting relatively young and relatively old population structures in these EU Member States. The median age rose in every one of the Member States during the period between 1 January 2006 and 1 January 2016, with increases of more than 4.0 years recorded in Romania, Lithuania, Greece and Portugal, while the smallest rises were registered in Luxembourg (1.0 year) and Sweden (0.6 years)» [2].

Speranza di vita

Cartina 1: speranza di vita

Le nascite, invece, latitano: «The EU‑28 crude birth rate was 10.0 births per 1 000 inhabitants in 2015. Across the EU Member States, this rate peaked at 14.0 births per 1 000 inhabitants in Ireland and was also relatively high in France (12.0 births), the United Kingdom (11.9 births) and Sweden (11.7 births). At the other end of the range, the crude birth rate was 10.0 births per 1 000 inhabitants or lower across many eastern (Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovenia) and southern regions (Greece,Spain, Italy, Malta and Portugal), as well as in Germany and Austria».

Birth rate 2

Cartina 2: birth rate

E quando ci sono arrivano tardi: «In 2015, the average (mean) age of women in the EU‑28 giving birth was 30.5 years, while the mean age of women at childbirth was at least 30.0 years in a majority of the EU Member States. The highest average age for giving birth was recorded in Spain, at 31.9 years, while Italy, Ireland and Luxembourg each recorded averages that were within 0.4 years of this peak. The lowest mean ages at childbirth were recorded in Slovakia (28.8 years), Romania (27.7 years) and Bulgaria (27.4 years). Looking in more detail, the mean age of women at childbirth was relatively high across most of Spain and Italy (see Map 2.4). By contrast, in most of the other EU Member States it was commonplace to find that urban regions (in particular, capital city regions) tended to record the highest average ages; this would tend to support the view that some women delay having children in order to pursue a career».

età media al parto

Cartina 3: età media al primo parto

 

—- E il lavoro… che non c’é —-

Alla popolazione anziana e priva di ricambi generazionali dobbiamo unire un altro elemento. Le gente che non lavora e non studia, i NEET: «The highest regional employment rates for recent graduates in the EU were observed in Drenthe in the Netherlands and North Eastern Scotland (2015 data; low reliability) in the United Kingdom, both 100 %. These were followed by the Dutch region of Zeeland, Malta (one region at this level of detail), Inner London – West (one of the British capital city regions), Praha (the Czech Capital city region), and three more British regions (Hampshire and Isle of Wight; Berkshire, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire; and Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Warwickshire), all with rates above 95 %. […] By contrast, all 13 regions in the EU where rates were below 50 % were in Greece or southern Italy, with the lowest of all, 29.1 %, in the Greek region of Peloponnisos (low reliability). The 62 regions in the EU where the rate was below 70 % (those shown with the lightest shade in Map 4.6) included all 13 Greek regions, 18 of the 21 Italian regions, 10 French regions, seven Spanish regions, four regions each from Bulgaria and Romania, two regions each from Poland and the United Kingdom, and a single region each from Croatia and Portugal».

NEET

Cartina 4: percentuale NEET

Ed ecco i disoccupati: «Among the EU Member States, unemployment rates varied greatly in 2016, with the 23.6 % rate in Greece nearly six times as high as the 4.0 % rate in the Czech Republic. Along with Greece, several other southern Member States — Spain, Cyprus, Italy and Portugal — reported unemployment rates above 10 %, as did Croatia and France. The one other southern Member State, Malta, was one of four Member States where unemployment rates below 5 % were observed, the others being the United Kingdom, Germany and the Czech Republic».

unemployment rate

Cartina 5: % disoccupati

Se fossi in Padoan mi preoccuperei di più dell’andamento carente dell’economia italiana piuttosto che delle aspettative di vita degli anziani…

[ … continua]

 

Approfondimenti:

– le pensioni, una panoramica: http://www.pmi.it/economia/lavoro/articolo/71080/pensioni-inps-listat-fotografa-litalia.html.

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[1] Cfr. http://it.blastingnews.com/lavoro/2017/10/pensioni-precoci-e-anticipate-padoan-la-longevita-pesa-sui-conti-dellinps-002100613.html.

[2] Cfr. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/8222062/KS-HA-17-001-EN-N.pdf/eaebe7fa-0c80-45af-ab41-0f806c433763.

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Questa voce è stata pubblicata il 21 ottobre 2017 da in Uncategorized.
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